In recent decades, right-wing populist parties have achieved success worldwide with anti-immigration campaigns, attracting many voters away from established mainstream parties. These parties now face the challenge of winning back their supporters.

Research has so far offered two common strategies for dealing with right-wing populist anti-immigration campaigns. On the one hand, established parties could adapt and adopt these issues themselves. However, this carries the risk of alienating remaining voters. On the other hand, they could try to suppress the issue and make it less prominent.

Researchers led by Prof. Dr. Heike Klüver from the Humboldt-Governance Lab have now investigated whether so-called “wedge issues” could represent a new strategy for mainstream parties. Wedge issues are issues that appeal to both pro-immigration and anti-immigration voters, thus taking into account the diverse interests of the electorate.

The research group tested this hypothesis with a panel survey experiment during the 2021 federal elections, focusing on the CDU/CSU. Through hypothetical election posters, the perceived agenda of the Union was manipulated to increase the importance of certain wedge issues.

The results of the study show that wedge issue strategies are not effective on average. However, exploratory analyses suggest that some anti-immigration voters could be won back through strategically targeted messages.

The research group emphasizes that wedge issue strategies could be particularly suitable for mainstream parties, which, unlike right-wing parties, cover a broad range of topics. Mainstream parties should therefore exploit “cracks” and “breaks” in the opposition’s electorate while strengthening their own base. This would allow them to win over supporters of right-wing parties as well as retain their core voters.

However, for these strategies to be successful, careful alignment of the wedge issues is crucial. “Through clearly formulated messages, there is potential to win back voter votes,” the researchers conclude.

The study by the Humboldt-Governance Lab thus offers new insights into the challenges and potential of voter recovery for mainstream parties. Whether wedge issues actually represent a promising strategy remains to be seen in the future.

Get read the study: Can wedge strategies by mainstream parties cross-cut the anti-immigration far right vote? – ScienceDirect